PANDEMIC
COVID-19: WHAT NEXT FOR TRAVEL?
9 April 2020
By Ian Mackenzie
COVID 19: WHAT NEXT FOR TRAVEL?
9 April 2020
By Ian Mackenzie
So, here we are, weeks into a lockdown that shows no immediate sign of being lifted. And, for good reason given the apparent success of responsible social distancing and its effect on “flattening the curve”.
It goes without saying, however, that the global journey along this pandemic route is still in its infancy. Of course, some countries are further along with their own particular journey. Whether that’s because of their success in curtailing the outbreak (see South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Germany) or because they simply haven’t got to grips with it early enough (UK, USA).
And then there are the countries that either haven’t reported their true numbers (China, Russia) or those with high density populations that are potential time bombs just waiting to explode (India, Indonesia, Brazil). If, indeed, they haven’t already done so.
The big question everyone wants to know, of course, is when will the restrictions be lifted and when can we expect everything to return to “normal”? Especially for those of us whose lives are intrinsically linked with the freedom to travel.
Well, with my own travel horizons suddenly restricted to just wandering out to the chicken coop to claim another four freshly laid eggs, I thought I’d do some research on what the “experts” are predicting about the industry’s future. And, after throwing in some of my own thoughts for good measure, this is what I’ve determined.
Spoiler alert: It isn’t pretty.
What next?
Assuming that the implementation of social distancing has the desired effect, a large majority of the world’s potential “tourist population” will not have caught the disease and so won’t have built up any immunity to it. So, without a vaccine, they’re highly unlikely to be able to travel freely. And, according to most health experts, a vaccine is at least 12-18 months away (developing, testing, manufacturing, supplying). Then it needs to be rolled out methodically and in vast numbers. Of course, there’s no guarantee it will even work.
As a result, social distancing will probably be a way of life for at least the next two years.
Meanwhile, as countries relax the travel restrictions within their own countries, they’ll be extremely cautious about re-opening their borders to international travellers too soon. Take New Zealand, for example. The government took swift action to put the country into lockdown at the beginning of the outbreak and it appears to have paid off. To the point where its Prime Minister has declared that the disease will shortly no longer exist within the country. But, although it previously enjoyed a flourishing travel industry, and it can look forward to relaxing its travel restrictions internally, why on earth would the country want to consider allowing international travellers in just yet and run the risk of another outbreak?
Sure, quarantining for 14 days in dedicated facilities is a short-term measure. But that would be totally impractical for any large numbers of daily arrivals.
The same goes for the likes of Italy and Spain. Both countries’ health systems have been ravaged by the pandemic. Both are experiencing a surge in unemployment. But both are showing early signs that the lockdown measures are slowing the rate of daily new cases. Signs for optimism maybe.
But, even if they continue to make progress over the coming weeks and months, are they really going to be confident about allowing international travellers to roam free within their borders without a proven vaccine in place? Or at least a universal testing process that can screen foreigners at the border or airports?
The latest developments being considered include a smartphone app that tracks if a person has come into close proximity with a COVID-19 sufferer. Which would open up a whole world of potential privacy issues. But it has already been used in places such as Singapore. Could this be a potential requirement for travellers?
Meanwhile, what are the prospects for the airlines who’ll be foaming at the mouth in anticipation of guaranteed returning customers? Well, unless there’s a large domestic market for flights (such as China and the USA), or some sort of mass bailout, a large number of airlines that rely on international travel will simply fall by the wayside. This year.
And, even if routes do reopen, how will they be able to practice social distancing? Allow just a certain number of people into the airport terminal at any one time? Leave empty seats between passengers? Reduce the number of cabin crew? Not exactly conducive to making a recovery from the losses of the previous months. And don’t even try to second guess what the price of a ticket might be.
Then, of course, there are the local hotels, guest houses, restaurants and other businesses who have been run out of business by the complete shutdown of visitors. And those that do continue to operate will need to satisfy their local authorities that they are implementing effective social distancing measures.
And what of the potential tourists themselves? The economic fallout from the pandemic is already painfully apparent. Record-breaking unemployment surges are likely to intensify as the lockdowns continue to bite. And just today, the World Trade Organisation has projected a decrease in trade of between 13% and 32% this year.
Which means that, in addition to a lack of confidence about travel, there will be less disposable income for people to spend.
So, with all that to consider, it seems highly unlikely that mass tourism will return to anything like it was before until a proven vaccine is in place and the knock-on effects of an improving worldwide economy take a foothold. We’re talking years.
And, when it does return, it’ll be a trickle to begin with. Almost like a return to the pioneering days of travel in the 50’s and 60’s.
What about independent travel?
If you have your own means of transport and don’t rely on a developed tourism infrastructure, then things might become a little easier for you. That is, once you have a vaccination card or “immunity passport” you can readily flash to a border guard or police patrol unit.
Indeed, there may be an opportunity once again for independent travellers to be trailblazers when the upturn starts to take shape.
But, of course, independent travel goes hand-in-hand with travelling to places and meeting people that are off the mass tourism circuit. People who will be even more desperate to benefit from an influx of visitors and tourist currency. Yet the countries in which they live may take longer to recover from the onslaught of COVID-19 cases because of their relatively poor healthcare systems.
Grasping for signs of optimism
OK, so enough of the pessimism.
Are there any signs to be more optimistic about travel than what I’ve laid out here? Perhaps.
Firstly, there’s too much money involved for countries and businesses alike to just allow the travel industry to fall apart. So if there’s any chance of avoiding it you can be sure there’ll be a concerted effort to do so. As long as countries are prepared to co-operate with each other for the benefit of everyone.
Secondly, the search for a vaccine will be ramped up. And there’ll be huge pressure to find a way to reduce the testing time.
And finally, the worst-case scenarios about the likely number of deaths, the potential development of a mutant strain of the virus and subsequent economic collapse, may turn out to be overblown. We can only hope so.
But there’s no doubt that travel as we know it is in for an extremely rude awakening.
Although it won’t stop us from at least trying to put some plans into place. Not least because we don’t actually have a home base to return to.
But for now, my daily expedition to the chicken coop is likely to remain the extent of my travel adventures.
Hell, it might even qualify as the highlight of my day!
What did you think? Am I being overly pessimistic? Or do you feel more optimistic about travel in the future? We’d love to hear from you so please add your comments below.
Hi, we’re Ian and Nicky, an English couple on a voyage of discovery around the world, and this blog is designed to reflect what we see, think and do. Actually, we’d like to think it also provides information, entertainment and inspiration for other “mature” travellers, too. So please feel free to pour yourself a glass of something suitably chilled and take a look around.
Completely agree with your analysis Ian. While I think that now is a great time to dream about travel, until full testing or a vaccine is available to manage the risk of contagion, global wandering will be limited to a ‘need to travel’ basis or to those with self-sustaining modes of transportation.
In the shorter term, I think there will be an increase in local travel as efforts to slowly reopen take shape and are successful. Travel that allows for on-going social distancing and is affordable in times of economic uncertainty.
We are more grateful than ever to be living on a sailboat. And we are fortunate to be voyaging in Mexico where the government is making efforts to accommodate full-time cruisers while simultaneously taking steps to minimize risks to its local citizenry.
I hope to see you and Nicky on the road again soon but thankful that you have a safe place to shelter for the foreseeable future.
Thanks, Lisa – it’ll be interesting to see if borders within the European Union re-open to anything approaching the pre-crisis levels. We’d planned to drive from France to Spain and Portugal this summer before Brexit kicks in at the end of the year. We live in hope!
A very thought provoking and sobering read. And this was my first one of yours to read (referred from John and Susan’s Latitude Adjustment blog). If there’s one thing I am taking from this, it is that ALL my future travels will be with long term friends, and even more precious than ever. We would always take one “big” trip a year with our travel friends and many smaller one’s throughout, but always had a hit list of places to go…sadly we pushed them off for various reasons. Oh how I wish we’d hiked Annapurna already! I know the mountains will still be there in 3-5 years but will our friends still be here? time will tell I guess.
Looking forward to reading through your blog and “traveling” with you!
Glad to have you along with us, Lisa! One of the drivers behind our decision to change to a nomadic lifestyle was the fear that we might not be able to do so if our health failed or there was a family crisis back home. Obviously we didn’t imagine it would be stopped by a pandemic, but it did reinforce to us that we made the right decision to do it then rather than wait for the “perfect moment”. As you say, Annapurna will still be there and, indeed, we’d like to go back ourselves. Hopefully, that can be sooner rather than later for both of us – and the people of Nepal!
I think it’s a very long and hard road back from here for travel and tourism sadly. great post.
Thanks, Andrew. And yes, managing expectations will be key in the short to medium term.
One vital point not flagged up in this article is travel insurance, especially for older people who will be seen as a very high risk.
Fair point, Max. That situation might improve if and when there’s a proven vaccine but, until then, I think you’re right – getting travel insurance if you’re in a “vulnerable group” could be a nightmare.
After being on the road for 5 years, we were touring around Australia when “life as we knew it” came to an end. We’re currently holed up in Victoria in a small village where we’ve rented a beautiful airbnb house for the next two months with the option to extend. If we have to be stuck somewhere this isn’t a bad place to be.
Not looking forward to our first cold winter since starting this nomadic life, and will have to update our wardrobes accordingly 🙂 Flip-flops and shorts won’t be able to cut it.
We may be spending more time in Australia than originally planned, but it’s a big country and we’ll enjoy exploring it more once state borders reopen. Meanwhile, we look forward to a time when we can once again head off to new destinations
Stay safe!
Yes, it looks like from a traveller’s perspective if you found yourself in Australia or New Zealand during lockdown you’ve at least got some light at the end of the tunnel. As long as you can get those warm clothes sorted out for the coming months!
Did you have any trouble getting your visa extended? We were in Australia, and now wish we would have stayed instead of coming back to the USA! Also worried about getting our medications in another country. We hope to travel internationally again, but will think ahead to “what if” …..
Excellent post, amigo. We’ve also been thinking a lot about the implications of all this for travelers and what it means for our own future plans. We think we’ll be doing a lot of in-country touring here in Colombia for the foreseeable future (which was already in the cards anyway). And of course, you two have given us an excellent roadmap for that.
We agree that it might take years, if ever, for the travel landscape to return to anything resembling the pre-COVID world. I wonder if there are some silver linings there? Maybe it will bring about a new era of more responsible tourism, where people realize what a precious privilege it is to be able to travel to new lands? And hopefully tread more carefully and respectfully? Time will tell, I guess.
Interesting times, eh?
Thanks, guys. And yes, domestic travel will hopefully return sooner rather than later. You’ve certainly got plenty to explore in Colombia. It’s interesting to think that only a few weeks ago we were reading reports about how the massive increase in global travel over the past few years was putting a huge strain on tourist hotspots. It’s almost as if nature has reacted in its own way by resetting the balance. As you say, let’s hope that the ability to travel anywhere is seen as a privilege rather than an entitlement in the future.
Thanks for that interesting read
Dave & I are also travelling pet sitters, well we were!
We’re currently staying with our daughter in Cornwall, England where the atmosphere towards ‘emmets’ ( non Cornish) is hostile..
With public suggestions of only treating unwell people if their GP is in Cornwall. The authorities are asking the public to phone and report any holiday makers seen here this Easter Weekend.
The message is don’t come now, come later.
Having seen this first hand it’s given us an idea of how other places may also react to tourists.
Many Cornish rely on tourism, from renting and cleaning property to the mass increase of revenue spent here in the season. But they’re passionate about their people and are putting the Cornish population first!
I’m just glad I was born here, although haven’t lived here for 40 years I think I’ll qualify as Cornish.
Stay safe and we look forward to reading more of your Blogs..
Ruth & Dave O
Many thanks, Ruth. Cornwall certainly isn’t a bad place to be in isolation for a while! I have an uncle who lives in the Lake District and the feeling towards tourists seems to be the same there, too. I don’t blame them, either. I only hope the casualties in the UK aren’t going to be as high as some of the predictions coming out at the moment.
Hi Ian and Nicky,
Very good points, all of them. The retail and F & B industries here in Hong Kong have been absolutely trashed – of course, we had 7 months of violent protests before the virus took over, so it’s been something of a double whammy.
I read that Cathay Pacific, our flagship airline here, carried just 542 passengers on all its flights world-wide on one day last week. I was amazed they were still operating international flights!
At least the original projections for the number of deaths in places like the US are now looking way too high, so maybe we can cross fingers and hope that the outcome will not be as bad as was once feared.
To be honest, Martin, it already feels like looking back to another age when I think about the nightly news footage of the riots in Hong Kong. I’m also finding it difficult to get my head around some of the projections. From my understanding of it, the reduced death toll projection in the US is based on strict social distancing being in place until the first week in June. Yet Trump is talking about “reopening” the economy from the beginning of May. So, would that mean a rethink with the projection? And I’ve read today that the South Koreans have identified people who have supposedly recovered from the virus but have since fallen ill with it again. Which is particularly scary. But, as you say, for the time being we can only carry on practising social distancing and hope it contributes to a more positive outcome.
Excellent read Nicky. Reality is that it is going to take a long time before we are able to globe trot as we used to. As fellow housesitters we foresee that the demand for sitters will return (although probably to a lesser degree), once people are able start travelling within there own countries.
Thanks, Yvonne. And yes, I agree that housesitters will need to rely on domestic tourism for the foreseeable future. Which I guess also means shorter term sits becoming available.